The conflict in Sudan has sparked a power struggle between Egypt and the UAE, with Egypt supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces and the UAE backing the Rapid Support Forces. Sanctions have been placed on both sides amid evidence of war crimes. The humanitarian crisis is worsening, raising existential concerns for Egypt regarding its water security and refugee management. Mediating efforts are needed to prevent further deterioration and to stabilize Sudan.
Amid Sudan’s civil war, a significant power struggle unfolds between Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with each nation backing opposing forces—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Ongoing conflicts have precipitated a humanitarian disaster, with Sudan on the brink of collapse since the war reignited on April 15, 2023. The situation has led to sanctions from the Biden administration against both factions due to allegations of war crimes and obstructing aid activities.
Despite undeniable evidence of the UAE’s involvement with the RSF, Abu Dhabi asserts its neutrality in humanitarian efforts, a claim challenged by U.S. officials. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has criticized the UAE for supporting entities cited for committing genocide, while Egypt openly supports the SAF, emphasizing its role as the backbone of Sudan’s stability.
Egypt has historically relied on Gulf states like the UAE for economic support since the military coup in 2013. Despite recent significant investments from the UAE, Egypt diverges from Emirati support for the RSF, advocating for the SAF’s dominance to prevent instability near its borders. The influx of over 1.2 million Sudanese refugees poses a substantial challenge for Cairo, heightening its stakes in the conflict.
The crisis in Sudan is further complicated by Egypt’s Nile water security, which is jeopardized by rising tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt has maintained alliances with Sudan to counter Ethiopian interests, but the current conflict has weakened Egypt’s negotiating power on the Nile. Sudan’s foreign minister recently reiterated solidarity with Egypt amidst rising tensions over water rights.
The civil war has weakened Egypt’s position while increasing opportunities for upstream Nile Basin countries to assert their interests. The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) has challenged long-standing treaties favorable to Egypt, complicating the region’s water politics further. In light of their deteriorating position, Egypt has sought to bolster its security alliances, notably with nations like Eritrea and Somalia.
The UAE’s strategic goals in Sudan have also suffered setbacks due to the RSF’s inability to control the country. With ambitions tied to Sudan’s resources, including its gold trade, the UAE has faced obstacles and recently experienced the abrupt cancellation of critical port development agreements. The contrasting visions for Sudan’s political future between Egypt and the UAE have become apparent, with Egypt supporting the SAF to ensure stability while the UAE seeks resource exploitation through the RSF.
The Sudanese government has conditioned collaboration with the UAE on a cessation of support for the RSF and financial reparations for the conflict’s impact. This proposal presents a potential path towards peace but poses significant diplomatic challenges for the UAE, which must reconcile its international image with its actions in Sudan.
Egypt is well-positioned to serve as a mediator to bridge the divide between Sudan’s needs and the UAE’s stance. Signs of this mediation effort have already been noted following diplomatic engagements between Egyptian officials and Sudanese counterparts. Moving forward, it is crucial for both the UAE and Egypt to reach an agreement for a sustainable ceasefire to avert further humanitarian disasters and stabilize Sudan.
The United States may play an instrumental role in facilitating dialogue between the two nations and promoting shared interests in restoring peace in Sudan. Without intervention, continued support for rival factions will likely exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis and lead to extended turmoil within Sudan.
The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Sudan are deeply intertwined with regional power struggles, particularly between Egypt and the UAE. Each country is backing different factions in the ongoing civil war—Egypt supporting the SAF and the UAE backing the RSF. Amidst a humanitarian crisis, these rivalries have substantial implications for stability in the region, the management of refugee inflows, and vital resources like the Nile River. Understanding these underlying tensions highlights the complexity of conflicts in Sudan and the regional ramifications which could ensue if left unresolved.
The struggle between Egypt and the UAE over influence in Sudan serves as a microcosm of larger geopolitical tensions in the region. With the conflict deepening and the humanitarian situation worsening, it is vital for both nations to seek a resolution that prioritizes the stability of Sudan. Effective mediation, particularly by the United States, could facilitate a ceasefire and enable Sudan to recover, underscoring the urgent need for collaborative regional approaches in times of crisis.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
