A recent study published in *Nature Climate Change* indicates that climate change has contributed to a 15 percent increase in global burnt area from 2003 to 2019, with significant rises observed in regions such as Australia and South America. The study urges the need for intensified climate change mitigation efforts as the influence of climate change on wildfires escalates annually.
A recent attribution study published in Nature Climate Change has found that climate change has likely contributed to an increase of over 15 percent in the global burnt area due to fires from 2003 to 2019. This study indicates a gradual annual increase of 0.22 percent in burnt area as a result of climate change, with central Australia experiencing the most pronounced rise in this metric. Chantelle Burton, a researcher at the Met Office Hadley Centre and joint lead author, stated, “Our study demonstrates that when fires do occur, the influence of climate change with drier and warmer weather conditions is increasingly significant.” This research addresses gaps from previous studies that failed to quantify the overall effect of climate change on global fire regimes. The researchers utilized fire-vegetation models to analyze how both climate change and socio-economic factors affect wildfire incidence in forested and savannah regions globally. Their findings reveal that the global burnt area is 15.8 percent greater when compared to a scenario without climate change. Regions such as Australia, South America, Western North America, and Siberia were highlighted as significant fire-prone areas, with respective increases in burnt area of 22 percent in northern Australia, 30 percent in southeastern South America, 18 percent in west Siberia, and 15 percent in western North America attributed to climate change. Conversely, in densely populated areas, the presence of firefighting services may mitigate the size of wildfires. For instance, increases in burnt area due to climate change were reported at 20.3 percent in central Africa, 2.7 percent in western Africa, and 12.4 percent in northeastern Africa. The study observed a climate change-induced increase in burnt area across 35 of the 43 IPCC-defined regions, with 13 regions exhibiting an annual rise exceeding 0.5 percent from 1980 to 2019. Additionally, anthropogenic activities have likely contributed to a reduction of 19 percent in global burnt area. Overall, while the study suggests a slight 5 percent reduction in global burnt area, it also indicates a growing influence of climate change. Lampe remarked, “For now, human activity has a bigger effect on reducing burnt area than climate change is increasing it. We do find that the effect of climate change is increasing (0.2 percent per year), which implies that in the coming decades, this balance will reverse.” This study emphasizes that although the overall global impact from climate change and human activities appears modest, significant changes occur on a regional scale, where the influence of climate change surpasses that of human activity in many locales, including central Australia, southern South America, and west Siberia. The researchers have underscored the urgent need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation measures, given the rapidly increasing impact of climate change on wildfire incidence.
The increasing incidence of wildfires globally has raised concerns among scientists, particularly regarding the role that climate change plays in altering fire regimes. Previous studies have not sufficiently examined or quantified the impact of climate change on the global burnt area, leading to significant gaps in understanding. The research conducted by the Met Office Hadley Centre and other institutions sheds light on this critical issue, establishing a direct correlation between rising temperatures and dried conditions due to climate change and the resultant increase in fires. This study informs policymakers and environmentalists about the pressing need to address climate change to mitigate its adverse effects on wildfire frequency and intensity.
In conclusion, the attribution study highlights a concerning trend of increasing global burnt area linked to climate change, with an overall rise of more than 15 percent from 2003 to 2019. While human activities have, for now, contributed to a reduction in burnt area, the accelerating impact of climate change calls for immediate and ambitious mitigation efforts. Failure to address these changes may yield profound implications for fire-prone regions across the globe.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
