Togo is considering joining the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which could weaken ECOWAS. Foreign Minister Robert Dussey indicated this shift might enhance regional cooperation and offer trade benefits. Potential gains include access to trade routes and security collaboration amid rising jihadist threats. However, the move raises concerns regarding Togo’s governance amid criticism of President Gnassingbé’s long rule and the implications of distancing from ECOWAS.
Togo is exploring the possibility of aligning itself with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which includes military-led nations Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This potential shift signifies a strategic realignment in West African geopolitics, potentially undermining the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), especially following the recent exits of these Sahelian countries from the bloc.
Foreign Minister Robert Dussey has expressed Togo’s interest in joining the AES, stating in January that such membership was “not impossible” and recently confirming on social media that it is actively considering joining the alliance. He emphasized the potential for enhanced regional cooperation and gainful access to the sea for member nations because of Togo’s coastal position through the port of Lomé.
The landlocked countries in the AES are facing various challenges, including jihadist threats and economic difficulties. Togo’s port access would provide a significant logistical advantage, enabling improved trade routes. Notably, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have already begun redirecting some of their trade towards Togo in light of rising tensions with ECOWAS members like Ivory Coast and Benin.
Togolese political analyst Madi Djabakate highlighted the potential for economic collaboration, including access to Nigerien oil and enhanced trade avenues, alongside security advantages. Togo may benefit from increased military cooperation and intelligence sharing, crucial given the surge in jihadist incidents in Northern Togo.
The AES, initially formed for defense, aims to establish a formidable joint military force of 5,000 personnel, a venture aligning with Togo’s interests in security enhancement. Togo’s movement toward AES reflects a pan-Africanist ideology fostering unity among historically divided nations, as noted by Djabakate.
However, there are suggestions that internal political dynamics may also propel Togo’s pivot. President Faure Gnassingbé, ruling since 2005, faces opposition criticisms concerning possible constitutional changes for extending his tenure. Aligning with AES, which generally resists Western advocacy for democratic transitions, could bolster Togo’s governance without external pressures.
Opposition figure Nathaniel Olympio cautioned that joining AES carries significant implications, suggesting it would protect Togo’s regime from ECOWAS’s governance standards. ECOWAS struggles with declining cohesion after the departure of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, who cite the bloc’s alignment with Western interests as a reason for their exit.
Despite this apparent shift, experts like Djabakate posit that Togo may retain connections with ECOWAS, suggesting it can maintain dual membership. He compared alliances to partnerships rather than permanent unions, affirming the strategic importance of Togo’s port for the entire West African region.
Contrarily, analysts warn that joining AES could expedite ECOWAS’s disintegration, with Seidik Abba suggesting that it would exacerbate Togo’s precarious socio-political status. As West Africa navigates complex political terrains, Togo’s forthcoming decision could significantly influence either the stability of ECOWAS or the ascent of the AES power dynamics.
In conclusion, Togo’s potential transition toward the AES represents a significant geopolitical shift within West Africa, challenging the influence of ECOWAS. This movement appears motivated by both economic benefits and security concerns, while also reflecting broader pan-African ideals. However, the ramifications of such a pivot could have profound implications for regional unity and governance standards, potentially accelerating ECOWAS’s decline while reshaping the contours of West African alliances.
Original Source: www.pulse.ng
