Ethiopia’s ethnic fragmentation under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed raises concerns of renewed conflict with Eritrea, reminiscent of Haile Selassie’s imperial ambitions. Abiy’s actions appear motivated more by political survival than nationalism, with potential war serving to unify a fractured populace. The Tigray War exemplifies the risks involved, resulting in immense humanitarian distress and exacerbating regional tensions. The international community must decisively engage to prevent further escalation and stabilize the volatile Horn of Africa.
The ongoing ethnic fragmentation in Ethiopia poses significant risks, especially with the resurfacing tensions regarding Eritrea. The imperial ambitions reminiscent of Haile Selassie’s era are apparent, as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s actions suggest an impending conflict with Eritrea. This is not merely nationalism; it represents a strategic maneuver for Abiy, who is clinging to power and appears increasingly authoritarian despite his reformist claims.
Ethiopia’s history of ethnic divisions compounds the situation, as these divisions are often blamed on ethnic federalism introduced by former leader Meles Zenawi. However, Ethiopia has a long history of ethnic disparity. Abiy’s government faces existential threats from growing internal dissent, making war with Eritrea a potential diversion that could serve to consolidate his power amid rising ethnic tensions.
The possibility of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could serve Abiy’s interests by unifying a fractured populace against an external enemy. As his support wanes within key groups, Abiy’s flirtation with irredentism is seen as a desperate attempt to maintain control rather than a push for imperial restoration. This conflict would not only strain Ethiopia’s military capabilities in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara but also risk exposing the regime’s fragility.
A conflict could further destabilize the already tense Horn of Africa region, which is experiencing turmoil from civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan. Countries like Somalia face threats from resurgent militant groups, while Eritrea remains isolated yet poised for retaliation if provoked. Abiy’s government must recognize the intricate web of regional instability and the potential for a significant escalation in violence.
The Tigray War illustrated the lengths to which Abiy and Eritrea’s Isaias Afewerki would go to eliminate threats such as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Their collaboration was not merely military but also a fundamental alliance aiming to secure both regimes’ survival, despite the immense human toll. The Tigray conflict resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths and widespread devastation, leaving long-lasting scars on the region.
Despite peace agreements attempting to quell the conflict, tensions with Tigray remain. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) still present a threat to Abiy’s regime, while Afewerki’s efforts to diminish any alliance between Tigrayans and Eritreans are evident. Abiy’s survival strategies entail stifling threats from these groups, ensuring that Tigray can never regain its political or military power.
Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict raises serious questions about Afewerki’s true loyalty to his nation versus his fixation on power. As both regimes face ongoing instability, diplomatic engagement is crucial to avoid a deeper catastrophe. The international community must not overlook the perilous potential for conflict in the Horn of Africa that could engulf multiple nations in chaos exacerbated by Abiy’s quest for control.
In conclusion, the precarious situation in Ethiopia and Eritrea demands urgent attention from the international community. The potential for renewed conflict, driven by political desperation, ethnic fragmentation, and historical grievances, poses a significant threat to regional stability. As both Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afewerki navigate their precarious positions, the imperative for diplomatic engagement has never been more vital to avert a humanitarian catastrophe and ensure that the sacrifices of the Tigray population do not go unrecognized in the pursuit of power. The path forward hinges on resolving Ethiopia’s internal ethnic struggles before they catalyze further violence.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
